Introduction:
In sports betting, the term “+EV” is frequently mentioned by professional bettors and handicappers. +EV stands for “positive expected value,” which is a mathematical concept that indicates a bet has a long-term edge in favor of the bettor. This article will explore what +EV means, how to identify it, and how to incorporate it into your sports betting strategy using statistical and mathematical analysis.
What is +EV Betting?
+EV betting is a strategy focused on finding value in a wager. A wager is said to have value when the probability of the outcome occurring is greater than the implied probability of the odds. For example, if a team has odds of +200 (or 3.00 in decimal odds), and the true probability of them winning is 40%, then that bet has value because the odds imply that the probability of them winning is only 33.33%.
The formula for calculating the expected value of a bet is:
Expected Value (EV) = (Probability of Winning * Amount Won) – (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost)
For example, let’s say you bet $100 on a team with odds of +200. The implied probability of them winning is 33.33%, but your research shows that their true probability of winning is 40%. The expected value of the bet would be:
EV = (0.40 * $200) – (0.60 * $100) EV = $80 – $60 EV = $20
In this case, the expected value of the bet is positive, which means that it has a long-term edge in favor of the bettor.
Identifying +EV Bets:
To identify +EV bets, a bettor needs to understand the sport they are betting on and the odds offered by bookmakers. Here are a few tips for identifying +EV bets using statistical and mathematical analysis:
- Understand the odds: How bookmakers calculate odds is essential for finding value in a wager. Odds are determined by the bookmaker’s opinion of the probability of the outcome occurring, and the amount of money being wagered on each side. A bettor can find the best value for a particular wager by comparing the odds offered by multiple bookmakers.
The formula for calculating the implied probability of odds is:
Implied Probability = 1 / (Decimal Odds + 1)
For example, if a team has odds of 3.00, the implied probability of them winning would be:
Implied Probability = 1 / (3.00 + 1) Implied Probability = 0.25 or 25%
- Research the teams/players: Before placing a bet, it’s essential to research the teams/players involved in the event. This includes looking at their past performances, injuries, and other relevant information that might affect the event’s outcome.
- Look for market inefficiencies: Sometimes, bookmakers make mistakes when setting odds, which can create market inefficiencies. A bettor who can identify these inefficiencies can take advantage of them by placing +EV bets.
Examples of +EV Bets:
Here are a few examples of +EV bets in different sports using statistical and mathematical analysis:
- NFL: In American football, a team trailing by two points can win the game with a touchdown in the final seconds. In this scenario, the odds of the trailing team winning the game outright are often higher than the odds of them covering the spread. This creates a potential opportunity for a +EV bet on the moneyline.
For example, let’s say a team is trailing by two points with 30 seconds left in the game. The bookmaker offers odds of +150 (or 2.50 in decimal odds) for the trailing team to win the game outright. The implied probability of them winning is 40%, but your research shows that their true probability of winning is 45%. The expected value of the bet would be:
EV = (0.45 * $150) – (0.55 * $100) EV = $67.50 – $55 EV = $12.50
In this case, the expected value of the bet is positive, which means that it has a long-term edge in favor of the bettor.
- NBA: In basketball, bookmakers tend to overvalue teams on winning streaks and undervalue teams on losing streaks. This creates a potential opportunity for a +EV bet on the team that is on a losing streak.
For example, let’s say a team has lost its last five games and is playing a team that has won its previous five games. The bookmaker offers odds of +200 (or 3.00 in decimal odds) for the team on the losing streak to win the game outright. The implied probability of them winning is 33.33%, but your research shows that their true probability of winning is 40%. The expected value of the bet would be:
EV = (0.40 * $200) – (0.60 * $100) EV = $80 – $60 EV = $20
In this case, the expected value of the bet is positive, which means that it has a long-term edge in favor of the bettor.
- Tennis: In tennis, the odds offered on a player winning the first set are often more favorable than the odds offered on them winning the match outright. This creates a potential opportunity for a +EV bet on the first set winner.
For example, let’s say a player is playing a match and the bookmaker offers odds of +150 (or 2.50 in decimal odds) for the player to win the first set. The implied probability of them winning is 40%, but your research shows that their true probability of winning is 45%. The expected value of the bet would be:
EV = (0.45 * $150) – (0.55 * $100) EV = $67.50 – $55 EV = $12.50
In this case, the expected value of the bet is positive, which means that it has a long-term edge in favor of the bettor.
Bankroll Management:
Bankroll management is a crucial aspect of sports betting that can significantly impact a bettor’s long-term success. The goal of bankroll management is to ensure that a bettor has enough money to withstand losing streaks and continue making profitable bets.
A common rule of thumb for bankroll management is the “1% rule.” A bettor should never risk more than 1% of their total bankroll on a single bet. For example, if a bettor has a bankroll of $10,000, they should never risk more than $100 on a single bet.
Following the 1% rule, a bettor can limit risk and ensure they have enough money to make profitable bets in the long run.
Emotional Control:
Emotional control is another important aspect of sports betting that can impact a bettor’s success. Emotions such as greed, fear, and frustration can cause a bettor to make impulsive decisions and deviate from their strategy.
To maintain emotional control, a bettor should set clear goals and limits for themselves before placing any bets. This includes setting a maximum amount of money to be wagered on a single bet and a maximum amount in a day, week, or month.
By setting and sticking to these limits, a bettor can avoid making impulsive decisions and stay focused on making +EV bets.
Avoiding Tilt:
Tilt is a term used to describe a state of emotional distress that can occur when a bettor experiences a losing streak or a significant loss. Tilt can cause a bettor to make irrational decisions and deviate from their strategy, leading to further losses.
A bettor should take breaks from betting and avoid chasing losses to prevent tilt. They should also focus on making +EV decisions and avoid making emotional decisions based on past losses or wins.
Conclusion:
In summary, +EV betting is a profitable long-term strategy for sports bettors who are disciplined and understand the sport they are betting on. Identifying +EV bets requires combining knowledge, research, and a good understanding of odds and probabilities using statistical and mathematical analysis.
In addition to identifying +EV bets, successful sports bettors must also practice bankroll management, emotional control, and avoid tilt. By following these principles and sticking to their strategy, sports bettors can increase their chances of profit in the long run.
It’s important to note that sports betting is not guaranteed to make money, and bettors should never risk more than they can afford to lose. While +EV betting can increase a bettor’s chances of making a profit, there is always the risk of losing money.
One way to limit risk is by using a staking plan, which is a method of adjusting the size of a bet based on the bettor’s confidence in the wager. A common staking plan is the Kelly Criterion, a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a bet based on the probability of winning and the bankroll size.
The formula for the Kelly Criterion is:
Kelly Percentage = (Probability of Winning * (Odds – 1) – (1 – Probability of Winning)) / (Odds – 1)
For example, let’s say a bettor has a bankroll of $10,000 and wants to bet on a team with odds of +200 (or 3.00 in decimal odds). The bettor believes the true probability of the team winning is 45%. The Kelly Criterion would suggest a bet size of:
Kelly Percentage = (0.45 * (2 – 1) – (1 – 0.45)) / (2 – 1) Kelly Percentage = 0.10 or 10%
The bettor should therefore bet 10% of their bankroll, which would be $1,000.
Using the Kelly Criterion or another staking plan, a bettor can limit risk and maximize long-term profits.
In addition to using statistical and mathematical analysis to identify +EV bets and practicing proper bankroll management, emotional control, and avoiding tilt, successful sports bettors also keep detailed records of their bets. This allows them to analyze their performance over time and adjust their strategy as needed.
+EV betting is a profitable long-term strategy for sports bettors who are disciplined and understand the sport they are betting on. Identifying +EV bets requires combining knowledge, research, and a good understanding of odds and probabilities using statistical and mathematical analysis.
In addition to identifying +EV bets, successful sports bettors must also practice bankroll management, emotional control, and avoid tilt. By following these principles and sticking to their strategy, sports bettors can increase their chances of profit in the long run.
It’s important to remember that sports betting is not guaranteed to make money, and bettors should never risk more than they can afford to lose. By using a staking plan and keeping detailed records of their bets, sports bettors can limit their risk and maximize their long-term profits.
